The data issued on Friday by Stears, Nigeria’s headline inflation rate increased for the sixth consecutive month, which may raise to 30 per cent by December 2023.
The firm stated that its forecasts are based on trusted econometric tools that consider a myriad of factors driving inflation, from general to country-specific dynamics.
The data-driven insights provider announced this while unveiling its Pan-African inflation forecasts.
It projected that Nigeria’s annual inflation rate is set to climb steadily until ending of the year, culminating at around 30 per cent, a level not attained since the country’s modern democratic era.
Stears’ Head of Insights, Fadekemi Abiru in a statement said, “In September, we saw the exchange rate premium—the differential between official and parallel rates—rise to 25.2 per cent, which is a significant increase from what it was in August.
“We expect this gap to keep widening and exerting further inflationary pressures unless we see significant dollar inflows into the economy. We have also had heavy and prolonged rainy season, which has affected harvests. Following the recent release of Nigeria’s September 2023 inflation data, the country’s forecasts have been prioritised, with Kenya’s projections scheduled for early November and forecasts for other African nations coming in early 2024.”
Recall that the World Bank, earlier projected that the removal of fuel subsidy and devaluation and unification of the exchange rate system will continue to increase the inflationary pressure in the country in the near term and erode the purchasing power of the average Nigerian.
Africa Pulse recent report shows that, the World Bank noted, “The incoming Tinubu administration implemented a series of reforms that included the removal of fuel subsidies and the devaluation and unification of the exchange rate system.
“Petroleum prices have more than tripled since the subsidies were lifted at the end of May. The naira has weakened by nearly 40 percent against the US dollar since the mid-June devaluation. Although these measures are intended to improve the fiscal and external accounts of the nation, their inflationary effects in the near term can erode the purchasing power of households and weigh on economic activity.”
