History Beckons and I will not be Silent (Part 1)
Chukwuma Charles Soludo, CFR
My attention has been drawn to some of the tirades on social media following my frank response during an interview on Channels TV regarding the “investments” Mr. Peter Obi claimed to have made with Anambra state revenues. Sadly, several of the comments left the issue of the interview to probe or suggest motives, inferred from my response on “investment” that I am opposed to Peter Obi’s ambition and therefore committed a “crime” for which the punishment is internecine abuse and harassment even to my family.
Some people even suggest that the gunmen who went to attack a checkpoint at my hometown on Saturday 12th November but were gunned down were part of the mob reaction. I used to think that for decent people, certain conducts are off-limits and that in Anambra, politics is not warfare. Of course, as a Christian, I know that telling the truth can be very costly, even suicidal. Our Lord and savior were crucified simply for telling the truth the people did not want to hear. I promised that I won’t be the usual politician, and will not knowingly lie to the people. I am not an Angel but rather than knowingly repeat the same deceitful character that politicians are known for, I would leave public office. It is a vow I made to my God and to my family.
Only God knows how many days I will be on this seat but whether I am on it or not I will always say it as it is knowing fully the suicidal consequences of telling the truth in a political arena, especially in a country where lying and deceit by politicians have become a culture and celebrated as being “smart”. Ideally, I should just have laughed off the infantile exuberances as many friends advised (I am used to this, having been in the ‘Arena’ for a while). I always re-read the quote “The Man in the Arena…” by President Theodore Roosevelt (1910) to remind myself of the burden of public office.
Several well-meaning Nigerians and Ndigbo called to advise that I should just ignore them. A respected Igbo elder-statesman who called advised that I should just ignore what he described as “Peter Obi and his social media mob”. According to him, “everyone knows that he is going nowhere, but they are looking for who to blame”. After some 20 minutes of discussion, he advised that I should personally author a response— just for the records. Everyone knows that I don’t follow the winds nor one to succumb to bullies or shy away from a good fight especially when weighty matters of principles and the future of the people are involved.
One lesson I learned from my former boss and mentor, President Obasanjo, is never to be on the fence. I learned that one must always take a stand: for better or for worse. I do so with every sense of humility, and leave history to judge. Most people have commended me for “tactfully avoiding being drawn into the Peter Obi issue” until now. Since I am now being forced into the Arena on this matter, I have a duty and a right to reply, if only for the records, and to also give the social media mob something substantive to rant upon and rain their abuses for weeks.
In this preliminary response, there are some things I will refrain from saying here because, in the end, February/March 2023 will come and go, and life will continue. At the outset, let me state that this exhibition of desperation, intolerance, and attempt to bully everyone who expresses the slightest dissent is reprehensible. This is Hitler in the making. When the revered Arch Bishop Chukwuma stated that in Enugu State, they were not obedient, he was ferociously bullied on social media. Any dissent has tagged a saboteur or, in my case, it could be that I want to contest for president after office or that I am envious of Peter Obi.
Soludo envious of Peter Obi? Totally laughable! But this is the same person I was asking to return to APGA in March 2022 and contest for president and yet envious or doesn’t want him to be president. This is madness! Seriously speaking, the obdurate attempt to muscle the republican Igbos to maintain the silence of the graveyard is antithetical to everything Igbo. It is not who we are. Insulting other ethnic groups and religions or denigrating others is certainly not the path to Aso Rock.
If this is not checked, it may indeed endanger the future political and economic interests of the Igbos. In his time, Dr. Nnamdi Azikiwe was the undisputed all-time leader of the Igbos but he had his arch-rivals and even independent candidates won landslide elections against his party, NCNC, in Igboland. Obafemi Awolowo had stiff opposition among the Yorubas while Ahmadu Bello had his share of opponents in the Northern region. Today, no one has accused Afenifere or other strong presidential candidates from the South West of being “anti-Yoruba” because Tinubu is a frontrunner, nor has anyone accused Kwankwaso and several other Northern candidates of being “anti-North” for not supporting Atiku.
As a full-blooded republican Igboman and democrat, I reject this despotic intolerance. Yes, I fully understand the anger of some urban and Diaspora youths and some Nigerians who are dissatisfied with the trajectory of the country or with the candidates of the major parties and wished other options. Not knowing much about others, some see Peter Obi as the contrast they wished for. I get the point. But this is a democracy: the minority will have their say, but the majority their way. Translating anger and social media agitation into political outcomes requires humongous work.
For full disclosure, let me state that Peter Obi and I are not just friends, we call ourselves “brothers”. But we have political differences: he left APGA for PDP after his tenure as Governor while I have remained in APGA since 2013. During the last two governorship elections in Anambra in 2017 and 2021, he led the PDP campaigns but APGA won a landslide in both elections. By the way, in 2016, he visited and proposed that I defect to PDP and contest the 2017 election against the incumbent Willie Obiano, but I declined. After my victory in November 2021, he called to congratulate me as I did to him in 2010.
He knows the game he is playing, and we know too, and he knows that we know. The game he is playing is the main reason he didn’t return to APGA. The brutal truth (and some will say, God, forbid) is that there are two persons/parties seriously contesting for president: the rest is exciting drama!
As my brother, I wish him well and even pray for him. I told him during his courtesy call that my prayer is that he or Prof Umeadi of APGA would win, so why not? That is from my heart, but I also told him that my head and facts on the ground led me to know that its probability is next to zero (what I cannot say before you, I won’t say behind you). So I already told him my opinion. Indeed, there is no credible pathway for him near the first two positions, and if care is not taken, he won’t even be near the third position. Analysts tell him you don’t need “structure” to win. Fantasy! Of course, LP won governorship elections in Ekiti and Osun on social media and via phantom polls, while getting barely 2,000 votes on the ground. Creating a credible third force for the presidential election in Nigeria requires a totally different strategy and extremely hard work.
Of course, Peter Obi will get some votes, and may probably win in Anambra state— as “homeboy”. But Anambra is not Nigeria. If he likes, I can even campaign for him but that won’t change much. From internal state-by-state polling available to me, he was on course to get 25% in 5 states as of August this year. The latest polling shows that it is down to four states, and declining. Not even in Lagos state (supposed headquarters of urban youths) where the Labour Party could not find candidates to contest for House of Reps or Senate. The polls also show that he is taking votes away mostly from PDP. Indeed, if I were Asiwaju Tinubu, I would even give Peter Obi money as someone heading one of the departments of his campaign because Obi is making Tinubu’s pathway to victory much easier by indirectly pulling down PDP. It is what it is!
The current fleeting frenzy, if not checked, will cost Ndigbo dearly for years. The South East has the lowest number of votes of any region, but it is also the only region where the presidential race might be a 4-way race (it is a two-way race in the other 5 regions) thereby ensuring that our votes won’t count in the making of the next president of Nigeria. Afterward, we would start complaining that we don’t get “what we deserve” or cry of marginalization. During the 2019 presidential election, the five South East States were united for PDP but contributed merely 1.6 million votes to PDP which was about the votes that Kano state gave to Buhari. The emotions might run to the heavens but politics-power is about cold calculations, organization, and building alliances for power. In a democracy, it is a game of numbers. So far, I don’t see any of these— and 2023 might again be a wasted opportunity for Ndigbo! What is our Plan B when Peter Obi loses in February 2023? Some people prefer that we should play the Ostrich while Peter Obi toys with the collective destiny of over 60 million Igbos. Yes, you pray that he wins, but what if he fails as he is certain to? The Bible says that my people perish for lack of knowledge. As the saying goes, only those who Plan can control the future. Ndigbo, wake up and smell the coffee!
What would Zik of Africa or M.I. Okpara do in this circumstance? Our founding fathers understood that in politics, you don’t get what you deserve but what you bargain/negotiate, and you negotiate with your organization and VOTES. Not social media militancy or bullying (where over 90% of actual voters are not on social media)! Our father’s built alliances with other major political parties in other regions (not with socio-cultural groups that don’t command any votes), and Ndigbo were in the reckoning in the first and second republics. After the elections, we will see how many votes any of the leaders of the socio-cultural groups will get for Peter Obi from their wards. Sometimes I even sense a conspiracy to nudge us on a path to nowhere thereby further pushing us into irrelevance, and I pray that I am wrong. Just my two cents!
It is not too late for Ohanaeze Ndigbo and progressive Igbo leaders to pre-emptively start charting a pragmatic future for Ndigbo in Nigeria after the elections. Armchair social media analysts can have the luxury of fantasizing with wild speculations. Right or wrong, they earn their pay with no consequences. For us as leaders, the lives of tens of millions are at stake. We have a historic duty to act and being silent or politically correct is not an option. For starters, Ohanaeze should study the report of my committee (planning and strategy) in 2019. It may still be relevant today. Second, Ndigbo should seriously study the MoU signed at the Yar’Adua Centre in 2010. The leader of the Igbo Political Association, Chief Simon Okeke, and our members are still there. Thirdly and for me, Ndigbo should strategize and bargain, especially with the TWO candidates likely to be president on at least four central issues:
A) Lasting peace and security in the South East, including the release and engagement with Nnamdi Kanu.
B)South East Economic transformation agenda and the FGN’s Marshall Plan for the South East as promised since the end of the Civil War (the post-war ‘reconstruction’). We appreciate the Second Niger Bridge and the recent contract for MTN to reconstruct the Onitsha-Enugu expressway. But the rail lines to the five state capitals, speedy access to the sea, highways linking South East to the North and South-South, addressing our existential threat as gully erosion capital of Africa, Free Trade and Export Processing Zones, etc.
C) Restructuring Agenda for Nigeria that devolves powers/resources to the subnational entities and in which it would no longer matter where the President comes from.
D) Levelling the playing field for the unleashing of the private sector and the full participation of Ndigbo in the economic and governance space; etc.
To conclude, let me once again wish my brother Peter Obi good luck. He should have fun and enjoy the fleeting frenzy of the moment. But he must moderate the desperation exhibited by his social media mob. There is a limit to propaganda. A mob action often reflects the character of its leader. No one has a monopoly on social media violence, and no one should play God. Life won’t end by February/March 2023.
I hope that after February 2023, Peter Obi will return to APGA (the party that made him everything he is politically) as I offered him on 8th March 2022, and begin the hard work, if he truly wants to be president of Nigeria. It won’t happen by desperately jumping from one party to another or by unleashing a social media mob on everyone who slightly disagrees with you. I decided to pen my views personally — again for the records. On this, I don’t mind being a one-man minority. As history beckons, my conscience and sense of duty to my people dictate that I should never be silent. I will happily accept the judgment of history for standing by the truth!
